Despite continuing security issues in the OPEC MENA region, we expect annual OPEC production to average 30.8 million b/d in 2015 – 600,000 b/d higher than the average of 2014 (for further details please refer to our latest JBC Energy Market Watch publication).
- In April, Saudi Arabia produced above 10 million b/d for the second month in a row and with crude burning season approaching as well as refinery intake potentially picking up further, we expect the high production levels to continue over the summer months. Even though we anticipate lower production numbers from Kuwait, we see crude production from the OPEC-3 group (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE) continuing at high levels on the back of stable UAE production and Saudi Arabia’s increase.
- Libya, Iran and Iraq are wildcards and we expect them to contribute significantly to the y-o-y growth this year, though there is significant downside potential.
- For the other remaining OPEC countries, we anticipate a y-o-y decline of some 200,000 b/d on average for 2015.