Outlook Iran 2016 after conclusion of nuclear talks.

  • Biggest questions for 2016: (1) When will the sanctions be lifted? (2) How capable is Iran in swiftly ramping up production (still without substantial international help)?
  • In our base case, we see sanctions lifted by mid-2016
  • Foreign investment will probably start soon, but will only have an effect later in the decade
  • Fields and infrastructure are generally intact, but suffered year-long poor maintenance – hence a quick ramp-up would be rather difficult
  • Additional condensate volumes and one-off stock release could come on top, but would only have a minor impact