OPEC+ production cuts through the end of July will limit the availability of medium sour crude, in turn putting a lid on HSFO supply and keeping cracks supported over summer (see Market Watch – Issue 6). Consequently, HSFO cracks are expected to find additional support over summer, on the back of seasonally picking up power generation [...]
Richard Gorry of JBC Energy: Based on the current recovery path for the oil market, OPEC+ cuts should be sufficient to balance the market by the end of 2020, including drawing down the oversupply in inventories. CNBC
US crude production ticked up 80,000 b/d m-o-m to 12.85 million b/d in February, according to the EIA’s latest monthly data release (see Americas Weekly – Issue 18). February saw the first uptick in production after two months of seasonal declines, helped by a 40,000 b/d downwards revision to January figures (EIA). The main growth areas [...]
The events of the last few months have proven how difficult it can be to forecast in this environment, which has led us to consider a number of recovery scenarios for gasoil/diesel demand (see Middle of the Barrel – Issue 5). Whilst our base case is currently on the bullish end of the spectrum, there may [...]
Johannes Benigni, chairman of JBC Energy Group, discusses the oil market and OPEC’s potential response to the coronavirus outbreak. CNBC
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Oil demand growth globally continued to see downside pressure as we moved through Q3 (see Market Watch – Issue 9). While August data from early reporters has been positive overall, the US in particular will face a tough time beating last year’s peak, given an apparent lack of support for oil demand across the board ytd, [...]
“‘The key driver behind bullish middle distillates is anticipated demand from IMO 2020. However, we believe that the market is overly bullish,’ said Richard Gorry, managing director at JBC Energy Asia.” “‘We would expect middle distillate cracks to weaken from January onwards. Obviously this is also a major risk for those refiners and others who [...]