Research

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June 2020

By | June 22nd, 2020|Research|

OPEC+ production cuts through the end of July will limit the availability of medium sour crude, in turn putting a lid on HSFO supply and keeping cracks supported over summer (see Market Watch – Issue 6). Consequently, HSFO cracks are expected to find additional support over summer, on the back of seasonally picking up power generation [...]

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May 2020

By | May 13th, 2020|Research|

US crude production ticked up 80,000 b/d m-o-m to 12.85 million b/d in February, according to the EIA’s latest monthly data release (see Americas Weekly – Issue 18). February saw the first uptick in production after two months of seasonal declines, helped by a 40,000 b/d downwards revision to January figures (EIA). The main growth areas [...]

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April 2020

By | April 30th, 2020|Research|

The events of the last few months have proven how difficult it can be to forecast in this environment, which has led us to consider a number of recovery scenarios for gasoil/diesel demand (see Middle of the Barrel – Issue 5). Whilst our base case is currently on the bullish end of the spectrum, there may [...]

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October 2019

By | October 17th, 2019|Research|

Oil demand growth globally continued to see downside pressure as we moved through Q3 (see Market Watch – Issue 9). While August data from early reporters has been positive overall, the US in particular will face a tough time beating last year’s peak, given an apparent lack of support for oil demand across the board ytd, [...]

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August 2019

By | August 30th, 2019|Research|

Based only on the already announced VLSFO projects, we can already outline the major VLSFO trade flows in 2020 (see Benigni On Oil Markets – Issue 8). The US appears to be best-positioned as of now to take advantage of the upcoming VLSFO demand rally in early 2020, with estimated VLSFO supply out of PADD-3 standing [...]

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July 2019

By | July 25th, 2019|Research|

Crude supply disruptions on geopolitical grounds have reached a stunning 5.3 million b/d, according to our assessments (see Market Watch – Issue 7). Although a bit overlooked due to the focus on discussions surrounding OPEC+ market management, we must not forget other sizeable amounts of production currently locked away temporarily due to geopolitical issues. Including the [...]

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June 2019

By | June 26th, 2019|Research|

Last week, PES confirmed its decision to permanently shut its 335,000 b/d Philadelphia refinery, following an explosion in late June – a move that has so far been a boon to the Atlantic Basin gasoline market (see Americas Weekly – Issue 26). According to our estimates, close to 600,000 b/d of refining capacity in Central and [...]

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May 2019

By | May 22nd, 2019|Research|

We see the Druzhba crude-supply outage primarily affecting diesel supply in Central Europe – worst-case scenario, cutting off around 100,000 b/d of supply on annual average in 2019 (see Market Watch – Issue 5). According to our estimates, close to 600,000 b/d of refining capacity in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) has been strongly impacted by [...]

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April 2019

By | April 23rd, 2019|Research|

We expect to see a cooldown in transport fuel growth this year (see Quarterly Refining Outlook – Issue 1). We can expect to see a cooldown in transport fuel growth this year, particularly with diesel demand growth falling from just below 500,000 b/d y-o-y to just above 200,000 b/d. We see difficulties for further growth in diesel [...]

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March 2019

By | March 21st, 2019|Research|

We See Total Inland Fuel Oil Demand 750,000 b/d Less Than the IEA in 2024 (see JBC Energy Online–Insights 15/03/2019). In its recently published Oil Market Report 2019, the IEA sees inland fuel oil demand rising by some 260,000 b/d in 2020 vs 2019, on the back of demand uptick mainly coming from Saudi Arabia. [...]

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