Next year’s demand outlook has strong upside potential (see Market Watch – Issue 11).
- We see this year’s global demand growth at 1.5 million b/d y-o-y. It is relevant to point out that this is some 300,000 b/d more than we expected at the end of last year, as global economic expansion turned out to be stronger than expected.
- In the event that economic expansion surprises to the upside once again in 2018, oil demand might react to the degree of an additional 150,000 b/d according to our calculations. Additional upside risk stems from prices.
- An annual decline in oil prices of five percent could trigger an additional 100,000 barrels of oil consumption.
- Therefore, oil demand growth in 2018 could easily reach this year’s level instead of the baseline view of 1.25 million b/d.