Asia is predicted to be the main driver of global oil demand growth in 2015, rising by 590,000 b/d y-o-y in 2015 (SuDeP). Growth is expected to outpace last year’s level of 430,000 b/d, thanks to accelerating demand dynamics in India (+200,000 b/d y-o-y), sustained growth in China (+370,000 b/d y-o-y) but also due to a decelerating decline in Japanese demand (-160,000 b/d y-o-y; see our February Asian Oil Monthly publication).
- Road transport is expected to provide most support, increasing by 430,000 b/d y-o-y, mainly on the back of rising gasoline consumption that will account for 70% of the demand growth in road transport fuels.
- Accelerating Asian product demand increase should be welcomed by the refining industry, which is seeing crude intake rising by 270,000 b/d, after an essentially flat 2014.
- Crude buying for storage purposes, commercial as well as strategic, could amount to 250,000 b/d on top of demand growth.