Significant crude stock draws only possible with a roll-over of the current OPEC/non-OPEC cut regime (see Global Refinery Margins – Issue 6)

  • The OPEC/non-OPEC cuts target of crude stock draws likely to be missed
  • Adversely, US crude stocks have increased by 30 million barrels since January
  • Only in case OPEC/non-OPEC agrees to extend cuts into H2, do we see crude stock draws of some 500,000 b/d on average in H2
  • However, higher prices resulting from OPEC/non-OPEC action are set to boost US shale supplies further