Gasoline demand growth in Asia this year lays mainly in the hands of China (see Asian Oil Weekly – Issue 2).
- China has been the main driver behind gasoline demand growth in Asia in the last several months, accounting for over 75% of total growth in H2-2018 – a trend we see continuing this year.
- This year, we see demand growing by 60,000 b/d, a relatively conservative estimate coming mainly on the back of a baseline effect as we see the higher levels reached over H2-2018 being maintained over 2019.
- However, a disappointing performance from Chinese demand amid high retail prices, declining vehicle sales and a strong push for EVs would weigh very strongly on an already oversupplied market. No growth in China would leave the region with just 80,000 b/d of demand growth, mainly coming from India (+50,000 b/d).