Gasoline demand has seen significant upwards revisions and we still see some resilience in demand growth. However, adjustments in the refining sector and yield switching make it unlikely that a repetition of last summer’s gasoline crack strength will be repeated. (JBC Energy’s latest outlook in our Market Watch Presentations)
- Compared to forecasts made in mid-2014, we see an additional 1.4 million b/d of additional outright gasoline demand in 2016.
- Global gasoline demand growth remains strong around the world. Although still someway short of 2015 levels, it is still set to be 60% stronger than the average seen over the 5 years prior to 2015, and its share of total oil demand growth is likely to remain unusually high.
- However, given the recent adjustments in the refining sector and the strong yield shift which brought gasoline production globally about 1 percentage points higher y-o-y on a global scale, we are already seeing the impact of the supply side.
- The gasoline crack rallies across the global have come to a halt. Going forward, we still see the summer upside to gasoline cracks, but spikes such as last year are increasingly unlikely.