We See Total Inland Fuel Oil Demand 750,000 b/d Less Than the IEA in 2024 (see JBC Energy OnlineInsights 15/03/2019).

  • In its recently published Oil Market Report 2019, the IEA sees inland fuel oil demand rising by some 260,000 b/d in 2020 vs 2019, on the back of demand uptick mainly coming from Saudi Arabia. In our view we do agree that there will be some demand uptick next year, but we see it much less pronounced as most major contributors to demand strength have already turned to cleaner alternatives.
  • The IEA expects inland fuel oil demand to remain strong long after the implementation of IMO 2020. This, however, seems unlikely, as we expect fuel oil discounts to remain limited to 2020 and 2021. Post-2020 we see inland fuel oil demand losing steam and returning to stable declines, in line with what we have observed over the recent years.