Renewed sanctions on Iran are unlikely to directly affect the country’s crude supply (see Energy Market Report – 8 May 2018).

  • Even in a dovish scenario, Iranian crude exports should decrease by at least 100 – 150,000 b/d, which may be compensated for by higher export of products.
  • A hawkish scenario would see exports drop by as much as 500-700,000 b/d over a couple of months.
  • Either way, the downside to Iranian export volumes would come at a time of seasonal tightness, exacerbating the effect on markets.