Ongoing refinery upgrades are continuing to change the structure of Russian product output. For more information on this as well as an extensive review of the Russian oil industry taxation (both historical developments as well as outlook to 2020) see our latest Russia Focus report (Issue 3).
- The structure of Russian product output continued to see a considerable shift this year, as refinery upgrades enabled the sector to increase output of higher-value products while the same time reducing the share of fuel oil
- Our base case scenario sees lower Russian refinery runs, but continued growth in gasoline and diesel supplies
- An additional 1 million b/d of new conversion capacity is expected to come online between now and 2020, although the peak in refinery upgrades is now past us
- We expect consolidation pressure to bring crude throughput down to 5.2 million b/d in 2020, with large companies, rather than smaller and independent players, taking most of the cuts