We expect to see a cooldown in transport fuel growth this year (see Quarterly Refining Outlook – Issue 1).

  • We can expect to see a cooldown in transport fuel growth this year, particularly with diesel demand growth falling from just below 500,000 b/d y-o-y to just above 200,000 b/d.
  • We see difficulties for further growth in diesel demand in the US, given the high baseline, with consolidation more likely than further largescale expansion.
  • Currently, we see downward-trending manufacturing PMIs – a leading indicator for gasoil/diesel demand growth – signalling weaker economic growth.