Based only on the already announced VLSFO projects, we can already outline the major VLSFO trade flows in 2020 (see Benigni On Oil Markets – Issue 8).

  • The US appears to be best-positioned as of now to take advantage of the upcoming VLSFO demand rally in early 2020, with estimated VLSFO supply out of PADD-3 standing somewhere between 300,000 b/d and 350,000 b/d next year and some additional 75,000 b/d coming from PADD-1 (see Benigni On Oil Markets – Issue 7).
  • Despite some sizeable new VLSFO production capacities coming online next year in China, Singapore, South Korea, and Japan, Asia will still need to find some additional 550,000-600,000 b/d of VLSFO next year.
  • We estimated the missing 410,000 b/d of VLSFO supply next year to come from projects that have not been announced yet.