Diesel’s long term outlook mired by constrained demand potential (see Market Watch – Issue 02).
- Long term gas oil/diesel demand has more numerous downside risks than upside risks
- In Europe and North America we are looking at a continued slowdown in gas oil/diesel demand per capital and increasing efficiency in the auto fleet
- The biggest source of growth in the coming 7 years should of course be India and China, but the outlook for the latter is more uncertain, especially with the government’s increasing focus on environmental clean-up. The shift to EVs in the transportation sector, as well as the broader shift away from an industrial-based economy, will be an increasing drag on gas oil growth in China going forward
- These factors are part of the basis for a fairly muted demand outlook between now and 2025 for diesel