Has US Crude Production Turned the Corner? (see Americas Weekly – Issue 1)

  • The EIA revised its average 2017 US crude production outlook upwards by some 220,000 b/d in its latest forecasts, with strong expectations for shale growth from April onwards.
  • The baseline for Q4 2016 was also revised upwards following strong October data.
  • We nonetheless remain cautious in our estimates for US output over the last two months of 2016 and into the start of 2017 given the negative impact of winter weather.
  • We have revised our average 2017 outlook slightly upwards to 8.79 million b/d (thus a decline of only 0.9% y-o-y).