Total Asian crude supply is on track to decline some 200,000 b/d y-o-y in 2016. (see Market Watch, issue 7)

  • This comes despite increased production from Indonesia (+65,000 b/d y-o-y) on the back of ExxonMobil’s Banyu Urip field developments.
  • Malaysia (+15,000 b/d) and Thailand (+15,000 b/d) have also contributed to production growth.
  • However, Asia’s biggest producer China is set to see output decline significantly as operators have shut-in loss-making onshore production sites. January-May reported figures indicate a decline of almost 4% y-o-y so far this year. We expect to see an average decline of some 5.2% or 225,000 b/d for the entire year.
  • India (-25,000 b/d), Vietnam (-30,000 b/d), and Australia (-25,000 b/d) have also put in disappointing performances, adding to the overall decline in the region.