In our crude balances we see an overall deficit flipping to a surplus between August and September, with an assessed m-o-m lengthening in the region of 2 million b/d (see Crude Oil Barrel – Issue 7).

  • From a trading perspective, this should become increasingly relevant for physical crude differentials over the next 4-6 weeks
  • We see the lengthening in the overall balance skewed strongly towards the Atlantic Basin, as the seasonal decline in crude intake coincides with stronger Q3 supply
  • The lengthening in the East of Suez trading balance is mitigated by a longer trading horizon which should account for some tightening after peak autumn maintenance
  • We expect these trends to keep interregional arbitrage spreads under pressure and allow for crudes like Urals to continue moving to Asia in large quantities