Big Indian refining expansion only post 2020 (see Energy Market Report – 5 March 2018).

  • The Indian government’s latest refining expansion plan published in February envisions a 80% increase in refining capacity to around 8.8 million b/d by 2030.
  • From now until 2020, the biggest refinery expansion concerns the Vizakh refinery, taking it to 300,000 b/d from the current 165,000 b/d. The scheduled mechanical completion, according to company information, is July 2020.
  • Although a few debottlenecking projects are also planned, we see only limited upwards potential for crude intake in the next 2 years in India. In our base case, crude intake is only 280,000 b/d higher in 2020 than last year, with demand growth this year alone expected to be around 240-250,000 b/d.
  • Post-2020, we see more upside potential, but major capacity additions are only expected from 2023. Those additions will be very much needed if India is to keep its present volume of exports stable.