US crude production ticked up 80,000 b/d m-o-m to 12.85 million b/d in February, according to the EIA’s latest monthly data release (see Americas Weekly – Issue 18).

  • February saw the first uptick in production after two months of seasonal declines, helped by a 40,000 b/d downwards revision to January figures (EIA). The main growth areas were the Gulf of Mexico and once again the Permian Basin.
  • March is set to be the last month in which we see a slight uptick before steep declines towards 11 million b/d materialise over April and May.
  • Declines have been driven by well shut-ins and natural shale declines, but also helped by early maintenance in Alaska and the Gulf of Mexico.
  • From June onwards, we see a stabilisation in US output and only slower declines to 11.75 million b/d by year’s end.