We expect total global liquids supply to grow some 640,000 b/d in 2016 compared to 2015 (see Market Watch– Issue 10)

  • Ramp-up at new projects (excluding those in Russia and OPEC Middle East) accounted for additional 2.6 million b/d
  • OPEC Middle East is set to grow by more than 1.5 million b/d (due to the return of Iran, as well as Iraqi and Saudi additions)
  • Russia contributed some additional 250,000 b/d this year
  • On the downside we see declines from US shale of 550,000 b/d, while outages and maintenance make up close to 1 million b/d
  • The most important part is global decline, which we see at around 2.2 million b/d (excluding Russia and OPEC Middle East)
  • The remaining 600,000 b/d of reduced output seem to have come as a result of price induced shut-downs, early decommissioning, lack of field maintenance and other actions. Some 300,000 b/d of the latter can be accounted to Chinese shut-downs.