Global total liquids supply is seen increasingly dominated by US crude and NGLs production (see Benigni on Oil Markets – Issue 8).

  • Policies implemented by the OPEC+ countries or the US are currently the major crude price determinants.
  • Economic slowdown, coupled with strong supply, and forecasts for growing flows in the months ahead, are likely to put pressure to global crude prices.
  • The current situation of oversupply is particularly pronounced on the light ends, a function of growing US shale oil supply and related NGL production ramp-up.
  • It remains to be seen if OPEC+ can win the uphill battle against US shale. If the OPEC+ aims for prices which are far beyond marginal supply/demand indications, potential cuts might become very costly.