Recent progress at a number of oil sands projects and upcoming projects for next year warrant our view that Canadian supply could surprise to the upside next year (See Americas Weekly – Issue 40).

  • We see strong potential for Canadian supply to surprise to the upside next year – our base case is for Canadian crude and condensate production to average slightly over 4.2 million b/d next year
  • 2018 supply could come in as much as 235,000 b/d higher than our base case if most of the projects come online with only small delays – even without the Algar Lake Phase 2 project
  • Downside risk would stem from project suspensions or delays as well as heavy maintenance – we see a potential downside of 200,000 b/d although we deem this to be unlikely given the strong maintenance seen these past two years