We expect to see the share of ULSD in total Russian gas oil/diesel exports to increase over the coming year (see FSU/CEE Insight– Issue 37).
- We see about 200,000 b/d of conversion units coming online in Russia by the end of next year. However, most of the projects are likely to materialise only at the end of the year and their effect will be felt predominantly in 2019.
- Desulphurisation capacity will also grow next year with about 120,000 b/d expected to come online. According to our estimates, this will bring the total outright figure to 2.9 million b/d by December 2018.
- According to our estimates, much of the desulphurisation capacity additions in 2018 will be focused on middle distillates, which would speak in favour of an increase in the share of ULSD in total Russian gas oil/diesel supply.